VIP Weekly Industry Report

On Feb. 9, the crypto market entered a choppy recovery phase after a deleveraging shock, with flows showing a clear structural split: capital crowding into BTC while major altcoins remain under pressure. Sentiment is deeply risk-off, with the Fear & Greed Index at just 14 (Extreme Fear). High-beta opportunities are concentrated in event-driven AI Agent and meme trades, led by BNKR, PIPPIN, and PENGUIN. On the macro and industry front, Vitalik argued that algorithmic stablecoins represent “true DeFi”; Cathie Wood said gold strength has often preceded Bitcoin’s cyclical breakouts and reiterated her “big three” thesis on BTC, ETH, and SOL; and Tether is accelerating global, diversified investments while strengthening governance and expanding hiring—signaling a faster shift from a stablecoin issuer toward a broader conglomerate model.

Gate Research: Over the past week, BTC entered a low-level consolidation and recovery phase following a sharp sell-off. The rebound has been capped by weak momentum and insufficient volume, pointing to a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. ETH recorded a larger weekly decline than BTC, with deleveraging pressure more concentrated. By contrast, H has surged approximately 41.94% over the past seven days, emerging as the standout outperformer of this cycle. Meanwhile, on-chain capital flows over the past week have shown clear signs of one-sided concentration and deleveraging. Triggered by the sharp market downturn, Aave whales moved to repay loans and top up collateral under liquidation pressure, driving stablecoins and settlement capital back to the Ethereum mainnet and resulting in net inflows of approximately USD 1.1 billion.

Gate Research: Over the past week, BTC experienced a sharp pullback on the 4-hour timeframe before gradually entering a low-level consolidation phase. ETH has underperformed BTC during the same period and remains in a downside structure. NEAR has gained approximately 39.62%, making it the top performer in this cycle. Arbitrum recorded a single-sided net outflow of about $235 million, with capital primarily reallocating to Base and other ecosystems. Amid geopolitical tensions, some capital has rotated into safe-haven assets, while other funds have shifted toward on-chain macro trading and hedging strategies—reflecting portfolio rebalancing rather than a broad-based sell-off. Meanwhile, increased activity on Polymarket has driven higher Polygon fee revenue, highlighting how real-world events are accelerating the conversion of macro narratives into on-chain cash flow.

Over the past week, BTC experienced a sharp pullback on the 4-hour timeframe before gradually entering a low-level consolidation phase. ETH has underperformed BTC during the same period and remains in a downside structure. NEAR has gained approximately 39.62%, making it the top performer in this cycle. Arbitrum recorded a single-sided net outflow of about $235 million, with capital primarily reallocating to Base and other ecosystems. Amid geopolitical tensions, some capital has rotated into safe-haven assets, while other funds have shifted toward on-chain macro trading and hedging strategies—reflecting portfolio rebalancing rather than a broad-based sell-off. Meanwhile, increased activity on Polymarket has driven higher Polygon fee revenue, highlighting how real-world events are accelerating the conversion of macro narratives into on-chain cash flow.

Global macro conditions remain highly uncertain. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to raise concerns over oil supply, keeping crude prices elevated at around $90–$100 per barrel. At the same time, shifting expectations around the Fed’s rate path remain a key driver of market sentiment.

In the cryptocurrency market, BTC exhibited a clear pullback followed by weak consolidation last week. After briefly rallying to around $76,000 midweek, the price quickly retraced. ETH climbed to a midweek high of $2,385 before giving back most of its gains. Among altcoins, SIREN was the standout performer of the cycle, posting gains of approximately 169.56%. Over the past week, on-chain capital flows exhibited a clear one-way trend, with liquidity moving decisively toward Hyperliquid, while Arbitrum emerged as the primary source of outflows. Meanwhile, Polymarket saw rapid revenue growth, with monthly fees surpassing $5 million, underscoring the commercial viability and cash flow potential of prediction markets.

Last week, Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) surged nearly 40%, driven by the expanding influence of its IP and strong social media marketing. Ethena (ENA) also posted a gain of over 31%, fueled by the launch of its USDtb stablecoin and aggressive whale accumulation. WorldChain recorded a net inflow of $116 million for the week, with its TVL soaring 32.64% and daily active addresses doubling. Meanwhile, the Sui ecosystem staged a strong rebound, with TVL doubling to $4.4 billion and daily active addresses jumping to 2.6 million.

Last week, the U.S. Congress passed several pieces of cryptocurrency legislation. Conflux (CFX) surged by 111.98%, driven by the release of its 3.0 version and the "Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)" settlement pilot program. Tezos (XTZ) also saw a significant gain of 66.46% amid rising ecosystem activity. Ethereum's institutional adoption is accelerating, fueled by capital inflows, progress on ETF approvals, and growing staking volumes. Meanwhile, Aave's TVL exceeded $33.5 billion, reaching an all-time high.